Have you ever had this fear that you’ll build something and no one will buy it? Pretty much everyone I know in this industry has it — and most of us have launched stuff that flopped before.
While there’s no single recipe for making sure that your new offer will be a smashing success, there are a few frameworks and a bit of math (sorry!) you can do before launching.
I built a new custom GPT that will help with most of that math and that will give you a blunt verdict whether you should GO/PILOT/HOLD. It’s 100% free for you and ungated; you’ll find it a bit later in this email.
Marketing can do a ton of things, including sell bad products. But one thing it can’t do is generate demand.
Ads can amplify demand. Funnels can organize it. Great copy can accelerate it. But if the underlying outcome isn’t compelling, the best you’ll do is make the “no” arrive faster.
This is the entire point behind classic “hole-not-the-drill” thinking and Jobs-to-Be-Done: people hire solutions to achieve progress; if the progress isn’t desirable, the product is just decor.
This previous issue of SAF teaches you how to figure out how big your total addressable market is and gives you a starting point for calculating demand.
Let’s go a bit deeper.
Framework 1: Outcome–Desire Fit (ODF)
What it is: A plain-English check on whether the end state you promise is so desirable that people are willing to change now. Not “interesting later.” Not “sounds cool.” Change now.
Why it matters: Demand lives in the gap between “where I am” and “where I want to be.” Jobs-to-Be-Done research shows products win when they help people make that progress with less friction than their current workaround. When you optimize features without clarifying the job, you polish a doorknob on a wall.
How to use it: Write one sentence in buyer verbs: For [WHO] who want to [OUTCOME] without [PAIN], [OFFER] provides [MECHANISM] in [TIMEFRAME].
Then pressure-test three realities:
- Is your minimal acceptable path easier—or at least safer—than what they already do?
- Do hidden constraints (time, money, approvals, skill, fear) outweigh the gain?
- If your offer vanished tomorrow, would your audience measurably lose progress toward the outcome?
There are, of course, outliers here. For instance, if you sell info products or 1:1 consulting and your offers vanished tomorrow, your audience will find someone else to step in for you.
There will be some progress loss (they need to trust the new supplier as much as they trust you). This is what happens in all crowded markets.
Framework 2: The Demand Signal Ladder (DSL)
What it is: A hierarchy that separates flattery from finance. At the bottom: compliments. At the top: cash.
Why it matters: Humans routinely intend to act and then… don’t. The intention–behavior gap is one of the most replicated findings in behavioral research.
Briefly put, this theory states that people intend to do something beneficial (like following a treatment plan) but most don’t — at least not all the way through.
So treat stated interest like a maybe and paid behavior like a yes to avoid shipping on the strength of emojis.
How to use it: Move up the ladder quickly. Praise → tiny form/waitlist → time commitment (demo, call, brief) → access behavior (asks price/start date, loops in a decision-maker) → money (deposit, pre-order, paid pilot).
You can absolutely watch the earlier rungs, but only the top tells you demand is real.
Framework 3: P50/P75 Range Forecast
What it is: A two-case sales forecast using your own historic performance: P50 (typical/median) and P75 (better-than-usual but still realistic). These ranges or prediction intervals are used across most industries to measure behaviors. Here’s an example.
Spoiler alert: the custom GPT you’ll see below uses these to help you predict the success of your new offer, too.
Why it matters: Since Apple’s Mail Privacy Protection inflates opens and hides real behavior, opens are noisy. Social media reports also inflate reach. Clicks (in most cases, although robo-clicks are becoming a thing too) and purchases are sturdier signals.
How to use it: Suppose your list is 5,000 subscribers. Your typical campaign gets a 35% open rate, 3% click-through (of opens), and 5% purchase rate (of clicks). Price is $299.
- P50 math:
Opens = 5,000 × 0.35 = 1,750
Clicks = 1,750 × 0.03 = 52.5
Sales = 52.5 × 0.05 = ≈ 3
Revenue ≈ $897
- P75 tweak (a bit better than usual): 40% opens, 4% CTR, 6% purchase →
Opens = 5,000 × 0.40 = 2,000
Clicks = 2,000 × 0.04 = 80
Sales = 80 × 0.06 = ≈ 5
Revenue ≈ $1,495
If it feels underwhelming, good! There are often things you can do to improve your conversion rate or your traffic, but it helps to start with realistic expectations.
For directional context, many benchmark studies place email CTR in the ~2–5% range across industries.
Framework 4: 48–72-Hour Validation Sprint
What it is: A short, decisive test that upgrades your forecast with real behavior. One loop. One metric. One deadline.
Why it matters: We’re not trying to “be right.” We’re trying to reduce uncertainty fast. Three days of clean signal beats three weeks of manifesting.
How to use it: Pick one or two:
- A waitlist page with price anchoring and a clear promise; measure unique-visitor-to-opt-in rate.
- A tiny pre-sell (capped seats, founding price, fixed start date); track click-to-purchase.
- A 10-minute Loom plus calendar; watch-to-book rate tells you if the promise bites.
- A short interest form (outcome, timeline, budget) to count qualified yeses; ignore polite maybes.
- Five DMs to ICPs: “I’m opening 10 founding spots at $X on [date]. Want one?”
When the timer ends, you need to decide whether your idea passed the test.
I do a variation of this with most of my launches. It’s not foolproof, but it always beats shooting in the dark.
Demand-O-Meter, the custom GPT I promised
Click on the link and the GPT should open in your ChatGPT account. You need an account but you can use it with the free version.
A quick note before you dig in: I built this GPT to help you get a realistic overview of how much money you can expect to make given your track record, audience size, and industry benchmarks.
Demand-O-Meter will also give you some recommendations IF the sales projections fall short of your goal. However, please remember that this is AI, not gospel. It’s a blunt sanity check tool, nothing more.
I added the link at the end of the email precisely because AI should never be used on its own. Pair it with one of the frameworks above for more accurate results.
If you found it useful, please consider rating it and sharing it with your friends.
Want to launch with even more confidence?
AI-powered sales projections are cool but you know what’s cooler? Knowing that you have the launch playbook you need — because without strong marketing, even the best of products can flop.
Want to make sure yours is a success? Book a 1:1 strategy session with me and we’ll make sure your product gets the launch it deserves.
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